🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."